Are Home Prices Really Falling? Here’s What the Data Actually Shows
If you’ve been seeing headlines about home prices dropping, you’re not alone—and it’s understandable if that’s raised concerns about your home’s value. But before you jump to conclusions, it’s important to separate attention-grabbing headlines from what the data really says.
The truth? Home prices are not falling nationwide. In fact, most of the country is still seeing price growth.
What’s Really Happening With Home Prices
Recent year-over-year data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows that the majority of U.S. states continue to experience rising home prices. While growth has slowed compared to the rapid increases of recent years, prices are still moving upward in most markets.
National data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) supports this, showing home prices are up 2.1% compared to last year. That’s not a crash—that’s steady, healthy appreciation.
Why the Headlines Feel So Negative
News coverage tends to focus on the exceptions, not the rule. Yes, there are a handful of states where prices have dipped slightly over the past year—but the declines are modest, generally ranging from -0.1% to around -2%.
These small pullbacks are happening primarily in markets that experienced the most dramatic price spikes during the pandemic. In those areas, prices are simply leveling out, which is a sign of normalization—not a warning of collapse.
Most Homeowners Are Still Well Ahead
Even in markets where prices have softened slightly, homeowners are still in a strong position.
According to Zillow:
Only about 4% of homes are worth less than what their owners paid
96% of homeowners still have positive equity
And when you zoom out to look at the bigger picture, the strength of the housing market becomes even clearer.
Over the past five years:
National home prices are up nearly 49%
Nearly every market across the country saw double-digit growth
That kind of long-term appreciation easily absorbs the small, short-term dips we’re seeing in select areas today.
What This Means for You
Home prices are not crashing. They’re adjusting—and in most places, they’re still rising.
A slight decline in certain markets doesn’t signal trouble for the housing market as a whole. It simply reflects local corrections after years of rapid growth. For most homeowners, the equity gains built over time remain substantial.
Bottom Line
Don’t let alarming headlines shake your confidence. The housing market is highly local, and national trends don’t always reflect what’s happening in your neighborhood.
Most homeowners are still in excellent shape, and long-term appreciation continues to outweigh any recent softening. If you’re curious about what these trends mean for your home specifically, the best next step is to look at local data, not national headlines.
If you want a clear picture of what’s happening in your market—and how it affects your home’s value—connecting with a local real estate expert can make all the difference.
