Home Prices Aren’t Flat Everywhere — Here’s What’s Really Going On

If you’ve been keeping up with real estate headlines lately, you’ve probably seen claims that home prices are flat.

At first glance, that sounds simple enough — but the truth is, the reality looks very different once you dig deeper.

In most markets, prices aren’t flat at all.

What the Data Actually Shows

While prices have certainly moderated from the rapid and unsustainable gains seen in 2020–2022, how much they’ve changed depends entirely on where you live.

Data from ResiClub and Zillow covering the 50 largest metro areas shows a clear split:

• About half of the metros are still seeing home prices edge upward.

• The other half are experiencing mild declines.

So when headlines call prices “flat,” what’s really happening is an average between two very different stories — one of steady growth and one of slight correction. (see graph below):

What’s Causing the Divide?

One key factor: inventory.

According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) at Harvard University:

“Price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

In simple terms:

• Areas with more listings are seeing price drops.

• Areas with tight supply still have price growth.

And even in markets where prices have dipped, it’s often a correction from places that saw huge gains during the pandemic boom. Nationally, prices are still up roughly 50% over the past five years, meaning most homeowners remain well ahead on their home’s value.

Experts continue to agree — a nationwide price crash isn’t in the forecast.

What Buyers Should Know

If you’re buying, knowing your local trend can make all the difference:

• In markets where prices are still rising, waiting could mean paying more later.

• In markets where prices are easing, you may have more leverage to negotiate — like asking for closing cost credits or repair concessions.

The bottom line: Understanding your local market puts you in control.

What Sellers Should Know

If you’re selling, pricing your home strategically is key:

• In a rising market, you may not need to make major compromises.

• But in a cooling market, setting the right price upfront — and being open to negotiation — can make or break your sale.

Homes priced correctly from the start are the ones that move quickly, and that’s where a local agent’s insight really matters.

The Real Story Is Local

National averages help paint the big picture, but real estate has always been hyperlocal.

As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, puts it:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented… This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

That’s why whether you’re buying or selling, working with a local real estate expert is essential. They’ll help you understand exactly what’s happening in your neighborhood — not just what the national headlines say.

Bottom Line

Headlines saying “home prices are flat” might sound simple, but they don’t tell the full story.

Every market is different — and knowing your local trends can help you make smarter decisions.

If you want a clear, personalized look at what prices are doing in your area, connect with a trusted local agent today.