The Real Story Behind Home Prices: No Crash in Sight, Just Steady Growth
You’ve probably seen the headlines or social media posts warning that a housing crash is just around the corner. It’s a story that gets attention — but it’s not backed by the numbers.
The truth is simple: we’re not heading for a crash. Instead, the data shows the market is on track for steady, moderate growth in the years ahead.
Of course, real estate is always local. Some areas may see prices rise faster, while others might experience brief dips. But when you zoom out and look at the national picture, experts agree —home values are expected to keep climbing over the next five years, not fall.
Don’t Believe the Headlines: The Market Isn’t Crashing
If you’ve seen social media posts or news headlines warning of a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to tumble. But here’s the truth:
Yes, real estate is local. Some markets may see stronger gains than others, and a few could experience brief dips. But overall, home prices are expected to rise nationally over the next five years.
What the Experts Are Saying
Every quarter, over 100 housing market experts contribute to the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae.
Their latest report? Prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029. (see graph below)
A Closer Look at the Forecasts
HPES groups expert predictions into three categories:
Overall Average: Home prices expected to rise about 15% by 2029.
Optimistic Forecasts: Up to 26% growth over the next five years.
Pessimistic Forecasts: Even the most cautious experts predict a 5% increase.
What stands out?
None of these experts are forecasting a crash — not even a decline. (see graph below)
How This Compares to “Normal”
Home prices are projected to rise 2–3.5% each year through 2029.
For context, the average annual appreciation over the past 25 years was around 4–5%.
So yes, growth may be slower — but it’s also more sustainable and balanced.
During 2020–2022, home values surged 15–20% in some areas due to record-low inventory and record-high demand. What we’re seeing now is a return to healthy, steady appreciation, not the runaway growth of the pandemic era.
Why a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon
Many fear that because prices rose so fast, they must fall just as quickly. But history tells a different story.
Home prices tend to rise steadily over time because of one simple reason:
Supply and demand.
Even with affordability challenges, there still aren’t enough homes to meet buyer demand. That limited supply continues to push prices upward.
And unlike 2008, today’s market is built on stronger lending standards and tighter inventory — not speculative buying.
The Bottom Line
If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re afraid of a crash, it’s time to look beyond the headlines and focus on the data.
The real question isn’t if home prices will rise — it’s by how much.
📞 Connect with a trusted real estate professional (like me!) to discuss what’s happening in your local market and what these forecasts mean for your next move.
