Why Waiting for “Perfect” Mortgage Rates Could Cost You More in the Long Run
For a while now, mortgage rates have felt like the monster under the bed. Every time they creep up a little, buyers freeze and whisper, “Maybe I’ll wait.”
But here’s the truth: waiting for that magical 5-point-something rate might sound smart — until you realize it could actually cost you more in the long run.
The Myth of the “Perfect” Rate
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
“. . . a 30-year fixed rate mortgage of 6% would make the median-priced home affordable for about 5.5 million more households—including 1.6 million renters.”
If rates drop to that “magic number,” NAR estimates that roughly 10% of those new qualified buyers (around 550,000 households) will jump into the market within a year.
That’s what experts call pent-up demand — all those buyers waiting for rates to fall before they act. And when they do, competition heats up fast.
So yes, a 5.99% mortgage rate might sound dreamy. But if that small rate dip triggers a flood of new buyers, it also triggers price increases. (see chart below):
The Real Numbers
Let’s run the math.
If you’re looking at a $400,000 loan, the difference between today’s average rate (around 6.2%) and a 5.99% rate is about $50 a month.
That’s less than most people spend on coffee runs or takeout.
But once more buyers enter the market and home prices rise, those “savings” can disappear — fast.
Why Acting Now Makes Sense
The advantage of buying before rates dip below 6% is simple:
✅ More homes to choose from
✅ Less competition from other buyers
✅ Better negotiating power with sellers
Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at NAR, explains:
“Over the last 5 weeks, mortgage rates have averaged 6.31%. This has provided savvy buyers a sweet spot to reexamine the home search process with more inventory, widening their choices.”
And Matt Vernon, Head of Retail Lending at Bank of America, adds:
“Rather than waiting it out for a rate that they like better, hopeful homebuyers should assess their personal financial situation — if the house is right for them, and the payments are affordable, it could be the right chance to make a move.”
In other words — focus on what you can control today, not what the market might do tomorrow.
The Bottom Line
If you’re holding off until mortgage rates fall below 6%, you might be setting yourself up for tougher competition and higher prices later.
Remember:
Lower rates don’t always mean lower costs.
Timing the market rarely works — acting when you’re ready does.
So don’t be scared of today’s mortgage rates. The real win could be finding your dream home before everyone else wakes up and starts chasing the same one.
